Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season is here! This means it's time for the 2022 Fantasy Football Week 5 Sleepers Heat Check!
As I mentioned in this week's episode of The Lateral Show, the waiver wire has not been a friend to fantasy football managers this season. In fact, there was not a single running back eligible for the Heat Check this week. This season, your draft has determined your fantasy football outcomes. That means getting the slightest of edges in acquiring free agents is more important than ever.
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In the Fantasy Football Sleepers Heat Check: Week 4 2022 I said to stream Jared Goff, scope up Mack Hollins and monitor Zay Jones. Jones picked up an ankle injury, so it's tough to give me a pat on the back for that advice. Otherwise, I think I mostly nailed it. Admittedly, Goff may be a full add rather than just a streaming option after finishing QB1 overall in Week 4, but he also played the Seattle Seahawks so let's not get too ahead of ourselves. Meanwhile, Hollins saw 96% of the offensive snaps in the Las Vegas Raiders matchup against the Denver Broncos last week, so the usage is still there. Hold onto Hollins for now.
As always, I covered my methodology for the Heat Check in the Week 1 article, so read that if you want to know how the Heat Check is done. The only difference is this week our sample size is strictly Week 2 to Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season.
Look, I get it. Everyone had Geno Smith as the ninth-best quarterback in fantasy football over the past three weeks. That's why it wasn't a shock to see him finish Week 4 as the QB2 overall.
Oh wait, nobody thought those things were possible. Heck, when we started the offseason we weren't even in agreement that Smith would be the starting quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks. Now, four weeks into the season he's the best-graded passer in the league according to PFF.
Despite this, people are still not ready to believe in Smith. He's rostered in less than 70% of leagues and FantasyPros ECR still can't bring itself to rank Smith as a fantasy football starter. Week 5 ECR has him at QB16 and the rest of season expert consensus has him all the way at QB21. Are the experts wrong?
The experts aren't wrong to be cautious about Geno Smith, who has had a subpar journeyman career. But maybe we have all been wrong about Smith, who was starting to improve before having his jaw broken in a locker-room fight in 2015. Smith, good or not, has been plagued by being in a few bad situations and never settling in as a starter. This is probably the most normal season Smith has had in a while.
Ultimately, this year Smith will live or die by his efficiency. Despite being somewhat mobile, he's not a running quarterback in the mold of Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts. He also isn't airing it out 50+ times per game like Joe Flacco was doing for the New York Jets to start the season. What Smith is doing, is regularly completing over 70% of his passes and making very few mistakes. Like Jared Goff, who Smith went toe-to-toe with in Week 4's shootout 48-45 Seahawks win, Smith is probably a borderline starter but a great streaming option. If you still need a quarterback, you probably cannot do better than Smith at this point. I dropped Marcus Mariota for Smith this week and I hope it finally solves my problems.
The New York Jets drafted Corey Davis's replacement twice in the past two NFL drafts. Despite this, Davis is quietly having a good season. He is tied for fourth on the team in targets, tied for third in receptions and tied for first in receiving touchdowns. He also leads the team outright in receiving yards.
All of this has Davis tied for WR25 in half-point-per-reception (half-PPR) scoring over the past three weeks. Not lights out, but clearly worthy of throwing in your starting lineup. Yet, Davis remains widely available and severely underrated. He currently sits at WR44 in Week 5 ECR and WR62 in ROS ECR. For reference, fellow Jets WRs Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore are both ranked higher than Davis — though only Wilson is outperforming the veteran wide receiver.
People are underrating Corey Davis for three reasons — well, maybe four. First, nobody believes in New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson, who returned to action this past week. ROS ECR has Wilson as QB29, which is pretty bad considering there are only 32 NFL teams.
The other reasons are related to his fellow wide receivers. Garrett Wilson had an insane Week 2 performance where he put up 26.0 half-PPR points and finished WR6 and the hype has not cooled down despite Wilson performing as WR55 the following two weeks. This was only one spot better than Elijah Moore, who is still getting a rankings boost from performing as the WR4 from Weeks 7 to 13 last season. And of course, it doesn't help that Davis finished WR66 last year, and failed to even be the best NFL wide receiver with the last name Davis.
But the Heat Check looks at recent performance, and in Week 4 Davis flashed what makes him worthy of a waiver wire pickup. With Zach Wilson under center, Davis led all Jets (or tied for the lead) in targets, receptions, yards and receiving touchdowns. That was good enough for WR12. Will he repeat that every week? Probably not, but he still needs to be rostered in every league. You can't leave a team's top wide receiver on the waiver wire.
If I told you there was a tight end available in your league scoring nearly eight half-PPR points per game over the past three weeks, you would be interested. You wouldn't be picking your jaw off the ground, but you'd be interested.
Well, that's exactly what Will Dissly is doing, and nobody cares. Dissly is rostered in just 12% of Yahoo leagues and a mere 6% of ESPN leagues. Experts are yawning at Dissly's numbers as well. Dissly is ranked TE20 in Week 5, just ahead of New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson. For reference, Johnson was TE31 over the past three weeks. Dissly was TE12. Even more insulting: Will Dissly is ROS ECR TE38 in half-PPR scoring. That is behind fellow Seattle Seahawks tight end Noah Fant, who Dissly has been consistently outperforming.
Despite a three-headed tight end corp, Dissly has been the clear lead tight end in Seattle. The veteran of the Seahawks's tight end room has seen 62.86% of the Seahawks's offensive snaps. Noah Fant has seen 55.92% and Colby Parkinson has seen just 34.96% of offensive snaps.
Despite this, you should not pick up Dissly unless you're desperate. His three touchdowns are what is keeping his numbers afloat, and they are unsustainable. Dissly has seen just three red zone targets over four weeks and is averaging just three targets per game. Neither number indicates projectable performance, so stay away. You are better off scooping up New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin, who is still widely available.
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Malcolm McMillan is part of The Lateral Duo of McLateral and Herms, and together they host a weekly video podcast that takes a sideways look at fantasy football. He is also a contributing writer for Fantasy Six Pack and previously worked for The Lateral, Pro Football Mania and BallBlast Football. For his day job, he is a News Writer for Tom's Guide, covering the latest in tech and entertainment.
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